DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) – President Joe Biden’s announcement that the US will end its support for a longstanding war by a Saudi Arabia-led coalition against the Houthi rebels in Yemen is likely to put pressure on the kingdom to end his campaign there. A lasting peace for the poorest country in the Arab world remains questionable.

The Iranian-backed rebels are firmly anchored in the north of the country and hold the capital Sanaa. The rest of the country is held by competing tribal, regional and political alliances, all of which are backed by the Saudi Arabia-led coalition that has been fighting there since 2015.

How these fragile forces react will be critical as the United Nations, the West, and regional countries attempt to find a mutually acceptable political agreement to share power. Yemen’s long troubled modern history suggests that reaching a deal will be difficult, and perhaps even more difficult to stick to.

WHO’S FIGHTING IN YEMEN AND WHY WAS IT SO BLOODY?

The Yemen War began in September 2014 when the Houthis captured Sanaa and began a march south to try to take over the entire country. Saudi Arabia, along with the United Arab Emirates and other countries, entered the war in March 2015 along with Yemen’s internationally recognized government.

According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Project, the war killed around 130,000 people, including over 13,000 civilians who were killed in targeted attacks. The aid group Save the Children estimates that 85,000 children under the age of 5 have died of starvation or disease since the beginning of the war. In the meantime, the coronavirus pandemic is raging unchecked as the war decimated Yemen’s health system and the Houthis suppressed information about the crisis.

The war has seen atrocities from all sides. Saudi air strikes with American bombs killed school children and civilians. The UAE paid off local al Qaeda fighters to avoid fighting and controlled prisons where torture and sexual abuse were rampant. The Houthis employ child soldiers and lay land mines at random.

WHY IS YEMEN AT WAR?

Yemen, located on the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, was divided between a Marxist south and a northern republic during the Cold War. The two nations became a united Yemen in 1990, waged a civil war in 1994 and later came under the rule of Ali Abdullah Saleh, a strong man who once called the government of his nation’s countless tribal groups, militant groups and alliances “dancing on their heads” designated by snakes. ”

Saleh lost power a decade ago during the Arab Spring protests. He eventually agreed to let his Vice President, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, take over. Hadi’s government was fighting and Saleh, seeing a second chance to regain power, had his forces on the side of the same Houthis he had fought as president when they swept into the capital in 2014. Saleh eventually switched sides again to support Hadi but his luck ran out – the Houthis killed him in 2017.

Iran, seeing the opportunity to support a war of attrition against rival Saudi Arabia, has backed the Houthis. Arab countries, the West and United Nations experts say Iran armed the Houthis with everything from assault rifles to ballistic missiles, something Tehran long denied despite evidence to the contrary. Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Gulf fear that the Houthis could become as powerful as the Shiite Hezbollah group in Lebanon. The Houthis have already launched drone and missile attacks deep in the kingdom.

Meanwhile, endemic poverty, water shortages and other resources in Yemen have worsened. The war has only exacerbated the misery and this country of 29 million people is now facing famine.

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WHY IS US INVOLVED?

There is another conflict in the Yemen war in which the US is directly involved. America has targeted al-Qaeda members in the Arabian Peninsula, whom Washington regards as the most dangerous franchise of the militant group that carried out the 9/11 attacks. In 2000, al-Qaeda fighters attacked the USS Cole off Yemen’s port city of Aden, killing 17 American sailors.

Every US president since George W. Bush has carried out drone strikes in Yemen, killing over 1,300 people, including at least 115 civilians, according to Washington-based New America. The US armed forces had operated in Yemen under Saleh and later left. American special forces forces have been stationed in the country in the period since then, including a raid early in President Donald Trump’s administration that killed a Navy SEAL, al-Qaida fighters and civilians.

In the meantime, the US sold bombs and fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, which the kingdom later used in strikes against Yemen that also killed civilians. In 2015, the Obama administration initially offered US-targeted support to Saudi Arabia’s command and control in order to minimize civilian casualties in air strikes. It didn’t, and Obama ultimately scaled back the program. Under Trump, that support continued, although his administration later suspended U.S. refueling operations for Saudi jets.

America has also sent US troops to Saudi Arabia after being subjected to a drone and missile attack in 2019 that temporarily halved its oil production. While the Houthis claimed the attack, the Kingdom, US and UN experts believe Iran carried out the attack. Biden stressed that the US “would continue to support Saudi Arabia and help defend its sovereignty, territorial integrity and people”.

Will this end the war?

Biden’s announcement seemed to be putting new pressure on Saudi Arabia to end its coalition campaign there. The UAE withdrew their ground forces in 2019, pushing for a negotiated solution to the war. Saudi Prince Khalid bin Salman, deputy defense minister and son of King Salman, wrote on Twitter that the kingdom wanted to work towards “implementing a sustainable political settlement” in Yemen. The war was a costly, bloody stalemate for both his father and brother, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

However, previous UN efforts have not ended the conflict. Meanwhile, secessionists allied with the UAE have openly fought against other coalition-affiliated troops. A peace between the Saudi Arabia-led coalition and the Houthis may only divide the country again in the future.

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Follow Jon Gambrell on Twitter at www.twitter.com/jongambrellAP.