Ah Many amazing things have happened lately in this country that has the most famous population policy in the world. First, China’s May census showed the country is aging rapidly and the total population is growing. Most boring and the birth rate dropped to 1.3 per woman. This is even less than Japan, which is already in a state of population decline and rapid aging.

We have known that for years, of course. A more notable development has been the media response to the census data. China’s seemingly vital struggles have been described as an existential threat to the country’s economic and geopolitical future. This panicked Chinese and international commentators that they were experiencing a “population crisis”. A well-known former McKinsey consultant later suggested a solution: “We will do our best to support the guidelines for childbirth.” This includes restricting access to better education for couples with two children. Lack of respect for human dignity.

At the end of May, the government announced that it would implement a two-child policy. Further Adaptation Allows all Chinese couples to have three children. In a way, that wasn’t surprising. After the census results were announced, speculation about waste increased. all contraceptive restrictions appeared to be inconsistent with widespread concerns about the aging and stagnation of the population.

Most observers (including myself) do not believe that the transition to a three-child policy will have a significant impact on the age of the Chinese population and the number of people in work. Survey data show that relatively few people really want a third child. Like people in other parts of East Asia, China, we are very concerned about child support (especially after-school education), access to decent and affordable daycare, and the impact on the careers of women. Without other support, such as quality, affordable childcare, it is difficult to say how these policies directly stimulate visible changes in overall fertility.

This announcement is only the latest in a series of fragmented family planning policy adjustments over the past three decades. This, of course, begs the question of why China is sticking to some restrictions. The complete abandonment of birth control policy is a surprising U-turn, recognized as an implicit assertion of the wisdom and effectiveness of China’s first one-child policy. More specifically, a complete restructuring of the national family planning programs, relocation of the remaining local family planners is a huge administrative task that requires time and wisdom.

But the most humorous thing is that many observers have stated that having more babies will solve China’s vital challenges in the short term. As we remember, babies don’t go to work. In today’s world, newborns are unlikely to be employed until after 2040. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Projection When defaulting in the early 2030s, babies don’t seem like the most useful solution. Raising the retirement age This is a simple solution, but the impact is limited. Ironically, it can also have unintended consequences, such as limited childcare by grandparents, which can further decrease fertility.

Broader changes are needed to address the new demographic realities of falling birth rates, rapid population aging and slowing (or declining) population growth. China must continue to adapt to crustal movements beyond decades of historical times. Incorporated the “demographic bonus”, a time when cheap labor was plentiful and the inactive population was small compared to the active population for both young and old.

By realizing the potential of an increasingly skilled and mature population, China Renkai Hongri, or “Dividend Talent,” is getting productivity gains as well as a healthy and successful aging population. You can also learn from the mistakes of other countries that are getting older and build stronger social and economic institutions to support older people. Together, these changes will enable China to embark on a sustainable path to meet the challenges of an aging population and ultimately a declining population.

But that doesn’t mean the transition to a one-child policy isn’t important. Report It has long been the practice for working-class couples to face fines or “social maintenance costs” after overbirth that they have found difficult to pay. In some areas, these costs are supported for social support from local governments, which in turn has led to over-implementation – a practice far from unique in China. Many families have lost their income as a result of too many assigned births. The new three-child policy inevitably reduces the risk of parents facing the risk of arbitrary, arbitrary, voluntary or arbitrary punishment. That is good for everyone.

Changes in population policies in the world’s most populous countries must be a big problem. But we must never forget that the population is made up of people. Most importantly, new guidelines offer individuals more opportunities than ever to determine the number of children. This change will inevitably allow thousands of families to have three children on their own initiative. While these numbers do not make a big impression on spreadsheets, the impact of policy changes on such budgets should not be underestimated.

China’s new three-child policy doesn’t improve the economy, but it can change lives.Stuart Gitel Basten

Source link China’s new three-child policy doesn’t improve the economy, but it can change lives. Stuart Gitel Basten